The 2024 Q4 Vulnerability Forecast by Éireann Leverett discusses an anomaly in vulnerability publications, pointing out a significant increase in Q2 compared to earlier quarters due to potential backdating. The author reflects on Q3 predictions, noting a 9% deviation, considered within the margin. Experimentation with second-step forecasts shows promise despite expecting to be wrong occasionally
Balancing forecast accuracy with margin width is crucial, aiming for a 1 out of 20 times error rate. The accuracy of step two forecasts within orders of magnitude suggests managing uncertainty effectively. Community feedback is welcomed to enhance forecast utility and accuracy, with discussions set to continue at an upcoming conference. ```https://www.first.org/blog/20240923-Q4Vulnerability-Forecast